As the price continues to rise transaction support gradually weakened, coupled with the recent macroeconomic factors of the disturbance of the impact of the price is gradually revised, so the follow-up market price began to gradually become rational.On the other hand, with the gradual accumulation of factory inventory recently, the pressure on resources and prices began to be transmitted from upstream to downward, and the market was worried about the concentration of resources after the recovery of the epidemic. Therefore, after the recent price rise, the market sentiment of shipment increased significantly.Comprehensive forecast, this week (2022.4.11-4.15) domestic steel market price or high shock operation.

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Current domestic steel market positive factors are still larger, one is the continued low supply.The epidemic situation restricts scrap steel collection and storage and the high cost restricts the production capacity of the short process. The operation rate of electric furnace has fallen for three consecutive weeks, which has a great impact on the supply of construction steel.In addition, according to the statistics of China Iron and Steel Association, crude steel in March was estimated at 2.71 million tons, down 10.7% year-on-year, and the resumption of production was lower than expected.Second, strong cost support. Recently, iron ore and coke continue to run at a high level, which has strong support for steel prices under the background of overall recovery in demand.Third, policy benefits continue.The Russia-Ukraine war and the domestic epidemic have put new downward pressure on the economy, so countries are often more cautious in judging the economic situation and require monetary policy to increase support for the real economy.The main negative factor is that the epidemic is still in the development stage, in addition to Shanghai and Jilin, Hebei, Jiangsu and other places have repeated outbreaks of the epidemic, which has a great impact on market demand.According to the statistics of the steel home website, last week’s steel inventory 25.8 million tons, an increase of 140,000 tons compared to last week, the main steel varieties of rebar, plate and hot rolled coil trading volume fell from the previous month, the release of market demand continues to be limited, has a certain impact on the mentality of businesses.In general, the actual impact of the current epidemic on downstream demand is greater than the supply of resources, and it will take some time for the policy to be realized. It is expected that this week (April 11-April 15, 2022), the domestic steel market price shock is more likely to run.

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At present, due to the domestic epidemic again again and again, the cities are strict traffic control measures are taken to deal with, the demand for supposedly under “silver four” season of hong kong-listed unsettles, markets started to worry about the limited release dynamics will be obvious, on demand manufacturing steel demand will likely weaker, construction steel demand will likely be delayed.Therefore, on April 6, the regular meeting of The State Council pointed out that we should use a variety of monetary policy tools in a timely and flexible manner, better play the dual functions of aggregate and structural monetary policy, and increase support for the real economy.First, we will step up the implementation of prudent monetary policy and maintain adequate liquidity.Second, we need to study measures to support consumption and effective investment, improve financial services for low-income housing, secure financing for key projects, and promote the rapid growth of medium – and long-term loans in the manufacturing sector.

For the domestic steel market, the steady growth of the “strong expectations” is still strong, but the demand side of the “weak reality” still exists, strong expectations and weak reality of the game is still continuing.From the perspective of supply, domestic steel supply is still in the improvement of the month but the situation of year-on-year decline, at the same time, the coexistence of high costs and low profits also limited the strength of some capacity release.In the short term, the domestic steel market will face strong supply, weak demand, steel market will be in a situation of shock adjustment.According to Lange Iron and Steel cloud business platform weekly price forecast model data calculation, this week (2022.4.11-4.15) domestic steel market price will shock consolidation, long material and profile market price will fall slightly, plate market price will stabilize in the weakening, pipe market price will rise slightly.

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Although this week is in the most favorable construction season, due to the “epidemic” prevention and control in many parts of the country is in a critical period, the construction progress of construction projects or continue to be affected, the growth of terminal demand of processing and manufacturing enterprises will still be slow, the impact of steel demand in key areas or continue to be limited, steel transactions are difficult to improve.In terms of supply, the blast furnace operation of tangshan steel enterprises continues to improve, and the production line in Handan and other areas has not been greatly affected, long process steel output or continue to grow;Short process production in South China has been affected by the epidemic, making it difficult to improve production.The yield of key varieties such as coil, ribbon and snail continued to increase.Main breed society stock, total stock or continue to rise slightly.Under more “epidemic prevention and control end demand growth under the weak real hard, strong demand expected market sentiment has cooled, at the same time the steel supply and expected to further enhance the growth of reality, in a relatively high spot price pressures, markets wait-and-see mood is aggravating, short-term steel prices narrow the probability of large adjustment.In the medium and long term, the policy end is expected to support a strong stable economy, and after the epidemic improves, steel prices are expected to strengthen again with the start of consumption.

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As of April 9, 20mmHRB400E rebar 24 market average price of 5096 yuan/ton, week rose 16 yuan/ton;4.75 Hot rolled coil 24 market average price is 5226 yuan/ton, week on month down 8 yuan/ton;The average price of 14-20mm general plate is 5240 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week on month.In the futures market, futures ended the week down 190 at 4970, futures ended the week down 169 at 5150.Spot basis difference of thread stage is 126, hot coil stage is 166.Due to the weakness of the futures market this week, the price of steel fell rapidly, and the spot market fell by a small margin, the steel is strong, the spot base difference.As the Tangshan area gradually unsealed, steel production schedule increases, iron ore procurement increases, iron ore demand is bigger, prompting iron ore prices are still strong.Iron ore price is strong, from the end of the cost support steel price is strong, good short – and medium-term steel prices.Futures market to raise the threshold will also cause liquidity in the short term, reduce speculators, futures prices lower, but the cost price still support steel prices, coupled with the increase of real estate inquiry, infrastructure projects frequently landing, demand still has the potential to release, this week (2022.4.11-4.15) overall bullish.