As the steel industry, the winter storage of steel is an inescapable topic at this time of year.
The situation of steel this year is not optimistic, and in the face of such an actual situation, how to maximize the benefit and risk ratio is the core key. How to do winter storage this year? From the experience of previous years, the winter storage time starts from December every year, and the winter storage of steel mills is from December every year to January. And this year's Lunar New Year time is a little later, coupled with the current high steel prices, the reaction of this year's winter storage market is slightly calm.
China Steel Network Information Research Institute for the topic of winter storage, research results show that: first prepare storage, waiting for the right opportunity to start the proportion of 23% of the survey statistics; Second, no winter storage this year, the price is too high, no profit accounted for 52%; And then wait and see, on the sidelines accounted for 26%. According to our sampling statistics, the proportion of non-storage is more than half. Recently, the winter storage policy of some steel mills is imminent.
Winter storage, once upon a time, steel trade enterprises a minimum income, low buy high sell stable profit. However, in recent years, the market is unpredictable, traditional experience has failed, winter storage has become a lingering pain of steel traders, "storage" worry about losing money, "no storage" and fear of steel prices rose, "no food in the heart" missed a good opportunity.
Talking about winter storage, we must understand several key factors affecting steel winter storage: price, capital, expectations. First of all, price is the most critical factor. Steel traders take the initiative to hoard some steel resources in order to prepare for the next year's sales profit, low buy high sell stable profit, so the price of storage can not be too high.
Second, there is a very prominent problem this year, the capital recovery period is too long. Especially the capital recovery of construction steel, the current construction steel traders are trying to recover the money, at the current price, the capital chain is very tight, the winter storage willingness is not strong, it is very rational. Hence the no-save or wait-and-see attitude of most.
Moreover, the outlook for steel prices in the coming year is cautiously optimistic. We can recall the situation of winter storage in 2022. The epidemic is about to open up, the market has strong expectations for the future, and we must make up for what we lost in previous years. At that high level, still firmly stored! And this year's situation is very different, after this year's market adjustment, from steel mills to steel traders, and then to the end of the real money is not a few, we are in a state of loss, how to rest at ease winter storage?
Although the industry and the market is expected to be better next year as a whole, but in the context of industrial contraction adjustment, demand is an important reason to measure winter storage or not, traders in previous years actively winter storage, is more optimistic about the steel price after the Spring Festival, and this year's significant improvement in market demand is not too much confidence, steel prices more or rely on strong policy expectations and high cost support.
Some institutional research said that the active winter storage enterprises accounted for 34.4%, the enthusiasm of winter storage is not high, showing a weak situation in the north, demand is still the primary factor affecting the winter storage of enterprises.
It can be seen that the amount of winter storage decreased significantly, and the inventory was low; At the same time, the price of the market reserve should be in the position, and there should be a safe "comfort zone"; These days, heavy snow and extreme weather occur frequently in the north, and the weather is cold. The main construction steel market has entered the seasonal off-season, and the market demand is facing a contraction.
In the face of this year's winter storage willingness is not high, the market has become particularly rational. China Steel Network Information Research Institute believes that December to January next year is a key time node for this year's winter storage. According to the situation of the enterprise, part of the winter storage can be carried out now, the later steel price can be restored if the price is lowered, and if the steel price is high, the appropriate shipment can be made and part of the profit can be redeemed.
Post time: Dec-13-2023
