China Steel Network: Summary of last week: 1. The trends of major market varieties across the country are divergent (building materials are stronger, plates are weaker). Rebar rose by 23 yuan/ton, hot-rolled coils fell by 13 yuan/ton, ordinary and medium plates fell by 25 yuan/ton, strip steel fell by 2 yuan/ton, and welded pipes fell by 9 yuan/ton. 2. In terms of futures, rebar fell by 10 yuan to close at 3610, hot coil rose by 2 yuan to close at 3729, coke fell by 35.5 yuan to close at 2316.5, and iron ore fell by 3 yuan to close at 839.

Market analysis: 1. At the policy level, seven provincial capital cities have completely canceled purchase restrictions, the central bank's LRP medium and long-term interest rates have remained unchanged, and the number of provinces and cities with special refinancing bonds has expanded. 2. Supply side: The blast furnace operating rate was 82.34%, a week-on-week increase of 0.14%. The output of molten iron fell back to 2.42 million tons. The output of the five major materials decreased month-on-month, and supply pressure slowed down. 3. On the demand side, the total demand for steel products rebounded by more than 400,000 tons from the previous month to 9.6728 million tons last week, a relatively large increase, slightly exceeding market expectations. However, the demand during the "Silver Ten" peak season is still low compared with last year, and the sustainability still needs to be observed. 4. Cost side: As molten iron falls, there is greater upward pressure on iron ore prices. The speculation on the supply side of coal mines has come to an end for the time being, and there is pressure for costs to come down. 5. Technical analysis: Generally speaking, it is in the concussive range (3590-3670). The weekly line closed with a small negative line, and the daily level rebound was weak. Follow up and pay attention to the 3590 position. Once the position is broken, the space below will continue to open. It is currently dealing with shocks. Pressure: 3660, Support: 3590.

This week’s prediction: The shock will be weak, with a range of 20-40 yuan

Decision-making suggestions: Although the current macro policy is on the warm side, the macro future expectations are on the weak side. On the industrial side, with the decline of hot metal, there is insufficient promotion on the cost side. The steel market has the risk of continuing negative feedback. Our judgment for October is still mainly "bottoming", and the time for a sharp upward trend has not yet come. It is recommended that steel traders respond with caution. Keep inventory running low, and at the same time do not chase the rise or fall on the market.