Tag kis Forecast

Tam sim no, kuv lub teb chaws kev lag luam ntau lawm tseem muaj zog. Cov ntaub ntawv macro yog qhov zoo. Cov dub series yav tom ntej rebounded muaj zog. Ua ke nrog cov kev cuam tshuam ntawm qhov nce billet kawg, kev ua lag luam tseem muaj zog. Cov tub lag luam uas tsis muaj caij nyoog yog ceev faj txog kev txiav txim. Tom qab qhov nce, kev lag luam kev lag luam huab cua yog lub teeb thiab cov tub lag luam muaj lub siab zoo. Tos thiab pom, qhov kev xav hauv qab yog qhov dav dav, tus nqi nce siab thiab tsis kam muag, qhov nce thiab poob mus rau qhov kev ua si, xav txog tus nqi muaj zog, nws cia siab tias tus nqi hlau yuav nce mus ntxiv rau tag kis.

1. Cov kev cuam tshuam muaj xws li hauv qab no

1. Tuam Tshoj Hong Kong Association: Qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov ntim khoom tsis tau txo qis

Raws li Tuam Tshoj Ports Association, qhov tseeb qhov teeb meem ntawm "Port Production Operation Monitoring and Analysis (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 1st txog Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 10th)" (tom qab no hu ua "Kev Ntsuam Xyuas") qhia tau hais tias nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis thaum ntxov, cov khoom thauj los ntawm cov chaw nres nkoj loj ntawm ntug dej hiav txwv tau nce. xyoo-rau-xyoo 1.7%, ntawm cov khoom lag luam txawv teb chaws tuaj yeem poob los ntawm 1.8% xyoo-rau-xyoo; Yangtze River chaw nres nkoj tsim khoom txuas ntxiv kom muaj lub sijhawm zoo, thiab qhov chaw nres nkoj hub tau nce 12.3% xyoo-rau-xyoo.

2. Qhov kev loj hlob ntawm kev siv nyiaj txiag hauv thawj 11 lub hlis dhau los ua qhov zoo

Kev txheeb xyuas los ntawm Ministry of Finance qhia tias thawj 11 lub hlis, kev loj hlob ntawm kev siv nyiaj pej xeem thoob plaws hauv lub tebchaws yog 0.7%, uas yog thawj zaug txij li xyoo no. Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Nyiaj Txiag tau hais tias txij li lub Kaum Ib Hlis kawg, cov nyiaj ncaj qha tau raug tshaj tawm thiab nws yuav kawm txog kev tsim cov txheej txheem nyiaj txiag ncaj qha nyiaj txiag ib txwm muaj. Qhov ntsuas ntawm cov nyiaj ncaj qha hauv 2021 yuav siab dua xyoo no.

3. Lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab nyiaj thim rov qab tau txais nyiaj rov qab los ntawm 10 billion yuan hnub no

Lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab tau tshaj tawm 10 billion yuan thim rov qab ua haujlwm hnub no. Raws li 20 billion yuan ntawm kev thim rov qab yuav tas hnub no, qhov nyiaj rov qab los ntawm 10 billion yuan tau paub txog hnub ntawd.

Thib ob, lub khw muag khoom

Kev tsim kho steel: nce

Cov khoom siv raw khoom kawg tau nce siab, kev ua lag luam yuav tsis raug kho rau lub sijhawm, kev lag luam kev xav tsis zoo, kev lag luam huab cua nyob ntsiag to, thiab kev lag luam tsis muaj zog. Kev xav tau hauv zos tsis txaus, tsis txaus siab ntawm cov tub lag luam los kho tus nqi, ceev faj txog kev ua haujlwm hauv qab, thiab muaj zog tos-thiab-pom kev xav rau kev yuav thaum koj siv nws, xav txog cov nqi zog ntawm steel mills, xav tias cov khoom siv hauv tsev yuav muaj zog dua. tag kis.

Sawb steel: nce

Tam sim no, cov khoom siv qis thiab cov khoom muag qis yog qhov zoo rau kev txhawb nqa, tab sis vim qhov tsis muaj zog ntawm cov khoom lag luam qis qis, tag nrho kev lag luam kev lag luam cuam tshuam rau qee yam. Nrog rau kev txhawb nqa ob npaug ntawm qib siab ntawm cov qwj thiab qhov kev lees paub ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hluav taws xob hluav taws xob, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob qis tau tsav nws tau pom qhov dav dav, tab sis tom qab kev nce siab, tsuas yog qee qhov tuaj yeem ua tiav. Feem ntau cov tuam ntxhab muaj kev xa khoom qeeb. Nws cia siab tias cov nqi ntawm cov sawb steel yuav nce ntxiv rau tag kis.

Profile: khov kho thiab siab

Cov qwj yav tom ntej tau txhawb nqa los ntawm kev poob siab, cov tub lag luam muaj tus cwj pwm zoo, thiab cov lus hais kuj muaj zog. Tsuas yog qee qhov kev pabcuam qis qis tuaj yeem pauv tau. Tag nrho qhov xwm txheej tseem yog qhov nruab nrab. Thaum lub caij nyoog qis ntawm kev lag luam steel, cov neeg siv qis qis tsis txaus siab rau cov khoom lag luam hauv qab, tab sis hauv qab ntawm kev ua lag luam tau txais kev txhawb nqa, Kev tsim khoom lag luam tswj hwm qhov kev sib tw, thiab xav tias tag kis tus nqi profile yuav sib sau ua ke.

Yeeb Nkab: lub ntsiab tsis tu ncua

Cov khoom siv raw muaj kev txhawb zog, thiab nws yuav nce ntxiv 50 yuan hnub no. Cov neeg siv khoom hauv qab muaj lub siab xav poob qis. Txawm li cas los xij, cov tub lag luam tsis thauj khoom yooj yim, lawv cov txiaj ntsig tau nrawm, thiab lawv qhov kev txaus siab ua raws li qhov nce siab. Kev ua lag luam yuav ruaj khov thiab txhim kho.

Thib peb, kev lag luam raw khoom

Hlau ore: me me sawv

Tam sim no, qhov chaw ua lag luam tus nqi yog ruaj khov thiab muaj zog, thiab cov tub lag luam tseem tab tom nrhiav rau pem hauv ntej kom nce. Ua ke nrog kev nce nqi ntawm npua hlau, thawb tus nqi hlau nce siab, qhov kev yuav khoom tam sim no ntawm cov tuam txhab steel tau qeeb, kev lag luam tsis muaj zog, kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig hauv qee thaj chaw ntawm Shanxi, thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob xav tau cov hlau ore kev lag luam yuav tsum khiav. tsis tu ncua thiab muaj zog tag kis.

Qhwv steel: ruaj khov thiab tus kheej nce thiab ntog

Yav tom ntej snails tau tig liab, kev lag luam kev ntseeg siab tau nce, cov tub lag luam tab tom xa khoom nquag, qee qhov steel mills tau nce lawv cov tuaj txog, thiab cov qwj yav tom ntej tau ua haujlwm hauv kev poob siab. Raws li huab cua hloov txias, kev lag luam downstream xav tau tsis muaj zog, tab sis qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom seem txhawb nqa cov nqi seem. Qhov kev thov rau cov khoom seem tsis hloov pauv, thiab nws cia siab tias tus nqi seem yuav nce tsis tu ncua tag kis.

Coke: nce

Lub cuaj puag ncig ntawm kev nce ntawm 50% pib tsaws. Tom qab qhov nce, coking tuam txhab txiav txim thiab xa khoom tau zoo. Hebei thiab Shanxi coking nroj tsuag tseem ua haujlwm txo qis peev txheej. Cov zis txuas ntxiv poob qis. Qhov xwm txheej ceev coke tau ntxiv dag zog ntxiv. Coking lag luam feem ntau muaj cov khoom muag tsawg. Qhov kev thov rau lub Hoobkas rov ua dua yog siab. Hais txog cov chaw nres nkoj, qhov xwm txheej hauv chaw nres nkoj yog dav dav, thiab qee qhov coke raug xa tawm. Kev lag luam yog qhov zoo. Nws cia siab tias tus nqi ntawm coke yuav muaj zog tag kis.

Npua hlau: khov kho

Lub cuaj puag ncig ntawm coke nce tau pib tsaws. Cov ore tseem ntxiv dag zog, thiab tus nqi ntawm npua hlau txuas ntxiv nce, thawb cov nqi hlau nce siab. Tam sim no, cov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov nroj tsuag hlau yog yuav luag poob. Ntxiv nrog rau cov khoom siv hlau nruj nruj hauv ntau thaj tsam, cov nroj tsuag hlau feem ntau tuav cov khoom tsis zoo thiab muab cov nqi sib txawv, qee cov nroj tsuag hlau tsis kam muag ntawm tus nqi siab. Tam sim no cov khoom xa khoom pheej yig feem ntau yog siab, tab sis tus nqi txhawb nqa muaj zog, thiab qee cov nroj tsuag hlau xav tias yuav ncua kev tsim khoom rau lub sijhawm tom ntej. Cov neeg lag luam tseem tab tom bullish, thiab npua hlau yuav tsum khiav tag kis.